Month-to-date, Month-to-date, the iShares China Large-Cap ETF (FXI) fell 3%, the iShares MSCI China ETF (MCHI) fell 2.3%, the Deutsche X-Trackers Harvest CSI 300 China A-Shares Fund (ASHR) gained 1.9%, the Market Vectors China ChiNext ETF (CNXT) rose 3.5%, the Powershares DB US Dollar Bullish Fund (UUP) gained 2%.
The yuan’s entry into SDR is “inevitable” and the real issue is whether the currency is allowed to float freely or if there is intervention for political reasons, Alan Greenspan, the former chairman of the Federal Reserve, told a forum in Beijing on Wednesday via a video link from Washington.
A meeting between U.S. Treasury Secretary Jack Lew with Chinese Vice Premier Wang Yang and Finance Minister Lou Jiwei at the G-20 leaders summit in Antalya, Turkey, provided an opportunity for the Obama administration to make clear to China that the United States intends to support the inclusion of the yuan in the SDRs, provided the currency meets the IMF’s existing criteria.
“People would go “Wow, China has become a member of the SDR” and that might be beneficial to the currency initially, but then as we liberalise capital markets there’s more downward pressure”.
“Reserve managers may lowball their ramping up of CNY in reserves until the Chinese economy stabilizes and the Fed is clearly done with its hiking cycle”, Englander said. It acknowledged the SDR invitation as “an acknowledgment of the progress in China’s recent economic development, reform and opening up”. One would be hard-pressed to argue that the renminbi will negatively affect the SDR’s function within the IMF (again, without descending into wonkery, the SDR sets the value of the IMF’s quasi-currency, which is subsequently employed in the Fund’s loans to individual states).
In brief, the SDR is the unit of account used within the IMF.
Here’s a look at what’s next as the IMF board prepares to meet.
The yuan would join the US dollar, euro, British pound and Japanese yen.
The onshore yuan closed at 6.3849.
“Over the past two decades, the single most important market distortion has been exchange-rate distortion”, he said in an interview. “None of the world’s major reserve currencies enjoy the kind of stability that CNY has of late”.
Swissquote Bank SA forecasts the Chinese currency to rise to 6.25 a dollar by June 30 on SDR inclusion, compared with last week’s closing price of 6.3740 in Shanghai.
Either way, RBCCM forecasts “USDCNY above 6.50 around the end of 2015 and above 6.90 by the end of next year”.
Nevertheless, RBCCM estimated “at least an additional $200-250 billion of additional US dollar demand”, an estimate “based on BIS short term worldwide claims growth observed since 2009”, he said.